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Cake day: June 20th, 2023

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  • Yes, because that’s a thing that can happen in carrier ops. While uncommon, it is absolutely possible. Mistakes and equipment failures happen, and carrier ops tend to be very unforgiving.

    I get being skeptical about shit the regime says, seriously, and generally speaking I’m right there with you. But you should also try to understand more about the intricacies of these sorts of things before immediately assuming it’s a cover up or whatever.

    Edit: and here is my explanation of why I think the first 3 F-15s that were downed were actually blue-on-blue engagements, and not cover for something else.


  • Fat lot of fucking good the MiC is doing us now. They’ve always been kinda shit against asymmetric threats, tbh.

    Honestly, Ukraine is going to come out of their war as one of the most important arms manufacturers and doctrine-definers of this new drone-centric age of warfare that we appear to be entering. The EU would do well to work very closely with them on that front - especially the Baltic states and Scandinavia (and, well, any country that’s been getting harassed by Russian drone swarms out of the Baltic Sea, like Poland and Germany, amongst others).


  • It’s possible, though I don’t think it’s likely.

    Generally speaking, USAF doctrine heavily emphasizes SEAD (Supression of Enemy Air Defenses) deploying in concert and close coordination with any sort of non-stealthy strike mission, in the interest of minimizing the risk of combat losses - and by all accounts, the USAF is very fucking good at SEAD (having developed the concept - also known as “Wild Weasel” sorties - back in the Vietnam War, after USN and USAF began taking significant losses to Soviet/Vietnamese SAMs, and refining it a lot since, both in terms of tech and doctrine).

    For strike planes to be caught flat-footed like that, I would expect that they were out of range of any possible Iranian SAMs, and thus were not in the mindset of constant vigilance, and moreover their SEAD support was probably not either (or had split off to land at another base altogether).

    Also: if the shootdown was from a Patriot, their RWR (basically: “what radar is looking at me”) was probably saying it was a friendly radar, and the pilots may have even thought the Patriot (or similar non-Russian system) was giving them cover from something they didn’t see, and they reacted late as a result.

    Thus, I do think that the blue-on-blue explanation is likely accurate - especially considering it was three F-15Es, and not just a single one-off shoot down. IMO, someone (not Iranian) was running air defense in the area and didn’t properly check their deconfliction and IFF.

    Edit: actually, it appears it was probably a Kuwaiti F/A-18. And as the article points out, if the pilot used Sidewinders, there would be zero warning, as the seeker is passive. However, I’m pretty sure standard loadouts are for a pair of heat seekers and the remaining pylons loaded with AMRAAMs… so that would only explain two of them. We’ll hear more about this in the coming days, most likely.








  • This is the other half of the story that you’re looking for. Kash fucking Patel was told (because he’s a complete fucking idiot and a consummate tool, and is incapable of having novel thoughts) to leave the back door open and unlocked and unsupervised, in a situation that is clearly going to create numerous and meaningful threats from a particular hostile state that we are now bombing the shit out of.

    So my money is that this is all part of The Plan (i.e. that they’re very intentionally leaving a huge opening for Iran to do something terroristic in the US), which will be used as a justification for, amongst other things, fully occupying Iran and fucking with and/or outright canceling the US federal midterm elections in November.