Let’s cut through the Western media cope and look at the material reality. A new report from CSIS lays bare the absolute failure of the imperialist strategy against Russia. It confirms what those of us with a materialist analysis have been saying for years. Russia is is successfully holding its own against the full force of the NATO war machine and its proxy.
On the economic front, the West’s “unprecedented sanctions” were supposed to collapse the Russian economy. Instead, we’ve seen a masterclass in how a sovereign state with resources and planning can defy the anarchic chaos of global capitalism. Russia successfully offset the flight of parasitic Western capital by mobilizing its state led economy. While Europe flounders, Russia has deepened its ties with the emerging multipolar bloc, China, Iran, and DPRK, bypassing the Western financial system. The report admits that even a recession will not destabilize political situation because the Russian people understand this is a war for national survival against an expanding imperialist bloc.
Meanwhile, we see growing political chaos unfolding in Europe where the public was not prepared for the economic blowback that resulted from the economic war on Russia.
Militarily, the narrative of a backwards Russian army has been completely shattered. The report details an astonishing transformation. Russia is now producing over thirty thousand drones a year with their number set to double by 2026, and is now launching salvos of thousands at a time. They have adapted their tactics, learning from early setbacks to become a brutally effective grinding force. Russia is also recruiting tens of thousands of new contract soldiers every single month whle Ukraine is conscripting grandfathers and students off the streets. In a war of attrition, Russia’s demographic depth and political will are proving superior.
Most damning for NATO is the admission of their strategic defeat in the report’s own scenarios. A total Ukrainian military collapse is still considered possible as US aid wanes.
The authors start taking flights of fancy in their conclusions where they claim that forever war is the most likely scenario. However, even here there is an admission that the most likely outcome is a total victory for Russia’s core strategic goals.
The report explicitly states that as long as this conflict persists, Ukraine will be unable to join the EU or NATO. Let that sink in. The entire point of this war for Russia was to prevent NATO expansion. By simply continuing the fight, Russia achieves its primary geopolitical objective. NATO has been checkmated. The unipolar moment is over, and a multipolar world is being born from the ashes of this failed imperialist project.
The reason I think it’s significant is because it’s a major logistics hub in Donbas. Once it falls, it’s basically going to cut off southern part from the north, and the rate of collapse could accelerate very visibly. Ukraine is also feeding a lot of their best units to try and hold Pokrovsk, as they always do. So, the AFU will also be more depleted as a result. Part of the strategy Russia uses is to create these cauldrons which forces the AFU to pull their units out of well defended positions where they’re much more vulnerable.
Of course, it might not end up being the inflection point people expect either. We’ve seen the AFU manage to hold together before when it seemed like the situation for them was catastrophic. I’ve definitely learned to tamper my expectations here.