And this aphorism of Thucydides is presented as inevitable, as the natural logic of international relations reasserting itself.

Absolutely the most significant line in Carney’s Davos speech, yet it has almost been completely ignored by the Canadian press. The thing about Thucydides is not, in fact, the aphorism about hegemony, but the theory of the Thucydides Trap

The Thucydides Trap, or Thucydides’ Trap, is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon. The term exploded in popularity in 2015 and primarily applies to analysis of China–United States relations.

The expression was inspired by the ancient Athenian historian and military commander Thucydides, and coined by the American political scientist Graham T. Allison around 2011. Based on an observation by Thucydides in his History of the Peloponnesian War that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap

China takes this seriously, and it has been the fundamental principle behind the huge expansion of the Chinese military. It is, I posit, the real message Carney was sending to the world at Davos. The very real possibility that the decline of America and the rise of other world economies - not just China, but the European Union among others - could inevitably lead to war as the United States tries to reassert its dominance.

Apparently, Canada and Europe are also, very belatedly, recognizing that the trap is a real and present danger, by their announcements that they are increasing their defense spending immediately. This is not just as a response to Russia and Ukraine, but the danger that America presents.

The New World Order that Carney mentioned is not just about the decline of ‘Rules Based Trade’. It is about the very real fact that, in the last three decades, pretty much all of the pie charts about world statistics regarding wealth, economic strength, GDP, industrial output, scientific advancement, etc, etc. have completely flip-flopped from “America 80%/Rest of World 20%” to America 30%/Rest of World 70%’ and shifting even more dramatically every passing year. This flip-flop is, indeed the new reality in international trade, the new order of things to come.

What is happening in America, internally and on the international stage, is not just about Trump. He is just the poster boy. No matter who the US President is, Republican or Democrat, the public tide that is now dominant in America would inevitably drag America in the same direction. Americans in general understand that the pie chart is shifting, and the almost universal adversarial attitude of Americans will lead them to predictably react exactly in the direction Trump is taking them. With a different President, all that would differ is the degree of compassion that was demonstrated. Carney had the guts and fortitude to make this clear to the world. America will continue to do what America is doing, regardless of who is at the helm.

Carney’s speech was about the need for the middle powers to recognize this radical redrawing of the pie charts, and about how to best position themselves now so they can take advantage of this shift and are future-proofed, not left behind by betting on the wrong horse.

What is inevitable is that the pie charts will continue their shift, faster and faster and that there is very little time left to develop a strategy for survival.

What is also inevitable, as history has shown, is the inevitable destruction of the Republic of the United (Autonomous) States of America.