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Cake day: April 10th, 2022

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  • Yes, but I don’t think Israel expected its air defenses to become functionally useless and for Israel military buildings and airports to be demolished. I think Israel is increasingly desperate and the US needed to step in to do something to stop Israel from doing something big out of that desperation. I think that’s why the US didn’t go in with shock and awe. It was more symbolic than anything.



  • I think it was. My guess is that this bombing run was to limit Israel’s escalation options. Now, the only way for Israel to escalate is to oppose the US narrative and actions, which creates the conditions for the US to split from Israel as a proxy.

    I am shocked that this is the US’s way of entering the war. Shock and awe is the normal way. This was not that in the slightest. I think this was a symbolic act and not a functional one.

    And that gives me hope that the US has not identified a path to military victory in this situation.

    The calculus is either that a bunch of attacks against US assets is the blowback necessary for the US to enter a regional conflict OR that everyone will realize this and only attack Israel and leave the US alone. In the first case, I don’t think the US needs pretense. In the second, it’s indicative of US weakness.




  • Tucker is an intelligence asset. Whatever he’s saying should be understood through that lens. There’s an agenda behind this “opposition”. One angle could be that the state needs a narrative angle to back down if it turns out that they indeed do not have the strategic advantage required to attack. Another angle might be that these are sheepdogs gathering the right-wing population to them and when the bombs drop the sheepdogs will turn the narrative towards “we have to support dear leader in times of war” because there needs to be some influence over the militia movement and lone wolves that might break rank over this.

    I’m sure I haven’t figured out the angle yet, but my gut tells me that Tucker and MTG breaking with Trump and Cruz is orchestrated.