• 0 Posts
  • 25 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
cake
Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

help-circle


  • I’m no expert so take what I say with a grain of salt.

    LLMs are prohibitively expensive to run.

    If I wanted to make a basic rollerball pen, the cost would be high because I would have to gather the resources just to make a single unit. Mass manufacturing drops the price considerably to make it affordable for me to buy a pen.

    But tokens aren’t the same as a factory line. If it’s $1 for me to use an LLM then it’s $100 for 100 people. It scales poorly.

    LLM availability over cloud infrastructure requires resources that are expensive to build and depreciate quickly to the point that ROI is untenable (ie. Nvidia’s GPUs).

    Now imagine a stock market that hinges around a handful of companies that are involved in that infrastructure component (eg. SK hynix). If many retail investors have dumped their savings into those stocks which can’t provide an expected return then the value of people’s savings will inevitably fluctuate on the whims of the AI industry.

    You can imagine what will happen the next time a Chinese company releases a free and efficient LLM that can run on an 8GB RAM personal laptop. The panic selling will reverberate through the markets and a lot of people’s savings will evaporate overnight.


  • they have the same problems we see in other advanced economies:

    • aging population
    • lack of housing
    • not enough births
    • household financial pressure
    • using trading/gambling as an additional income stream

    They do have well known global industries but workers generally-speaking aren’t paid enough / have limited free time outside of their work. To add more pressure I believe the government increased the pension which is typically paid by the working population who are already financially stretched as it is.

    They’re on track for destabilisation in the next 20-30 years.










  • there used to be a time when a business had to have a proven product/service that brought consistent value to the customer.

    openai has been throwing darts blindly at the dartboard for the last three years that it bewilders me that anyone could think they have the ability to be stable or profitable in the near future.

    my thing is, if everyone is using LLMs to write emails (for example) then there needs to be a re-think about online communication as a whole and that would definitely not involve LLMs.





  • Sony didn’t really “double down”. The decision to wind down their physical games category was made years ago. Everything after the initial public announcement is to manage public relations.

    Not sure many outside Japan realise but Sony are a conglomerate that dip their fingers into unrelated industries. This to them is clearly just a line through a smaller category on the balance sheet.

    There’s a discussion to be had about ownership and physical games but i think that market is going to re-emerge in the future in perhaps a more bespoke way, like the resurgence of music vinyls.

    To me, Sony seems to be interested in just managing the distribution of IP opposed to “gaming” itself. They’re not true custodians in that space or if they were, then they’re not now.