That’s helpful, thank you!

I’m sorry but that was beautiful. I’m calling it the CAliphate going forward.

Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism covered this this morning. Their take was that that announcement was just a restatement of the UAE’s existing policy. Would be curious about your take one their analysis: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/08/iran-war-us-considers-reducing-middle-east-military-presence-as-conflict-widens-regionally-market-wobbles-intensify-as-government-bond-interest-rates-rise-globally-and-ai-bubble-implosion-seems-immi.html

You don’t sound like a doomer. This is a very mature and moral take.

JPMC is pretty sure that the US needs a “solution” that “reopens” Hormuz by early June. That cuts both ways, more pressure to find a military solution and greater risk of any miscalculation or failure. The safest play is to keep the blockade on the blockade going and say that Iran is being crippled.

It looks like there’s very little room for a negotiated solution but a long slow drawdown that ends somewhere both sides can accept without ever declaring an agreement doesn’t seem insane to me. It’s face saving for the US and Iran collecting tolls and controlling Hormuz is pretty good for them.

Is there any reason to think this is actually directed towards Iran and not entirely just to suppress battle damage images in the media?

the Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls on the international community to assume its legal and humanitarian responsibilities

Feels like the thoughts and prayers of international relations.

The other obvious reason to purge your officer core is you think you might need officers who’s loyalty is guaranteed if you intend to do something about an upcoming election you’re confident will go badly for you.

I’d be pretty surprised by that. Soldiers are chatty and have access to some social media. Casualty communications blackouts aren’t perfect and eventually things start to leak, especially once details make it into the family readiness groups back home. Not saying it’s impossible but the odds of something like that working for more than a couple days would be pretty small.

I’m not an expert but I’m familiar with that particular mechanism.

Has anyone seen any evidence of talks between Iran and the US, or even some serious third party discussions?

Has anyone seen any independent corroboration for this? I’ve been looking and having seen anything.

Thought this was an interesting piece of analysis from the folks over at Oilprice.com, an industry publication focused on investors and oil execs. TLDR is they are suggesting 200$ per barrel oil is realistic based on the damage being done to energy infrastructure and Iran’s ability to restrict oil traffic.

Note embedded link is to the archive.is version.

I think this is a critically important point. The contradictions of capitalism are becoming clearer and more and more folks will awaken to them as the situation deteriorates. It’s important that we do our best to prepare the ground now. If things go the way they seem to be going this will be a fantastic opportunity to disrupt and oppose the forces of global capitalism.

You had me in the first half, I’m not gonna lie 😂