But what will be left after it bursts? At least in cause of the housing bubble - the houses existed physically - what will be after the AI crash? Lots of spare gear sold for cheap?
The s&p 500 tanks a ton and banks call on loans from these AI hyped companies using the price of the stocks as collateral (previously expected to rise). Credit crunch and now companies tighten the belts even further so higher unemployment again. Federal funds rate gets slashed and those that can manage steady good work during the recovery years will be fine. Everyone else will be struggle busing as usual
If you have a stable job with good pay or good upward mobility in the company potential and don’t have periods of unemployment, if it has a 401k, you’re 401k is being invested while the market is down. When unemployment is high, the Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate much lower to try and stimulate the economy. That results in lower rates for consumer loans. So people that have stable jobs that pay well enough can take out loans and/or refinance their current loans to do better than they were.
When the market recovers, you’ve had years of experience that you can now use for job hopping at more senior level roles when the job market recovers. Also a lot of late career people end up consulting for companies large and small with inexperienced staff. Those that didn’t fare well in a career during a market downturn, it’s either stagnation or hardship after hardship
It doesn’t necessarily have to be office/lab work. I know people that grinded the past decade+ in restaurants until an owner would trust them to manage a restaurant including all the supplies and payroll and then trust them enough to partner on a another restaurant and then that be their ticket to financial security. Some in their 30s, some 40s, some 50s. It’s a grind but at least they didn’t end up drug addicts and alcoholics like so many others
yes,
We can’t prevent the bubble burst. We can hope it happens sooner rather than later but the bubble is baked in. So what companies and individuals can to is basically buy up their detritus at bargain prices. And then use them to make better, more solid companies that do not require $3T investment while showing no fucking profit.
AI is where former cryptocurrency companies pivoted when mining cryptocurrency stopped being profitable. There’s nothing left to pivot back to. Even those who have drunk the blockchain Koolaid don’t think there’s money in mining. Just gambling by investing with real money and hoping someone will give you more real money than you bought it with.
Is that because they’re so focussed on growth and advancement though?
Right now there’s no incentive for efficiency. The focus is using venture capital to grab market share by implementing new products.
If suddenly everyone realised that the new iterations are more costly without any new functionality, the focus would switch and it might be worthwhile.
Right now, you can buy a $500 GPU, and run an LLM locally that can help you draft documents or code or transcribe audio. If that were scaled up to a subscription service surely it could be reasonably priced, yet profitable.
If all of that were the case… why aren’t they ALREADY profitable? There are only 2 companies in the actual LLM/AI space, OpenAI and Anthropic, and OpenAI is already so dominant that Anthropic is a noncontender. Since that is the case, why aren’t either of them profitable? If they were, they’d be screaming about it constantly; Altman would be on stage every single goddamn day boasting about it; OpenAI would be posting monthly, if not WEEKLY profit reports, just to show how much money they were making as “”“The Future™️”“”; public investors would be POURING IN like nothing else mattered!!!
So where is it? Where’s the profit? Where are the reports and press conferences, the investor statements and the IPO’s? Where’s the goddamn money, Lebowski???
And don’t say they’re in the “growth stage” or whatever. 4 years in and a TRILLION DOLLARS LATER, there’s no profit to be seen, no remarkable products to use, nothing of substance except billions burned building bespoke data centers and polluting the planet. The whole AI “”“industry”“” is a lie.
Because they are still chasing a breakthrough. It’s one thing offering LLMs as a service or selling models, it’s another to develop new and better ones. It’s just a huge research cost. I’m pretty sure if they would stop research on new models and slightly increase their prices, they would be profitable. But they don’t want to fall behind.
What was left after the cryptocurrency crash? A whole lot of GPUs that got repurposed for AI. They’ll just get repurposed for whatever extremely computationally intensive thing some computer engineer comes up with. Until that bubble bursts, rinse and repeat. What’s happening is project managers are selling the next big thing to make a lot of capital really quickly to a board of directors.
But what will be left after it bursts? At least in cause of the housing bubble - the houses existed physically - what will be after the AI crash? Lots of spare gear sold for cheap?
Affordable GPUs? Less pushy AI commercials?
The wealthy will just move on to the next thing to inflate. Capitalists don’t work. They don’t care about anything other than ROI.
The s&p 500 tanks a ton and banks call on loans from these AI hyped companies using the price of the stocks as collateral (previously expected to rise). Credit crunch and now companies tighten the belts even further so higher unemployment again. Federal funds rate gets slashed and those that can manage steady good work during the recovery years will be fine. Everyone else will be struggle busing as usual
Can you elaborate on managing “steady good work”?
If you have a stable job with good pay or good upward mobility in the company potential and don’t have periods of unemployment, if it has a 401k, you’re 401k is being invested while the market is down. When unemployment is high, the Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate much lower to try and stimulate the economy. That results in lower rates for consumer loans. So people that have stable jobs that pay well enough can take out loans and/or refinance their current loans to do better than they were.
When the market recovers, you’ve had years of experience that you can now use for job hopping at more senior level roles when the job market recovers. Also a lot of late career people end up consulting for companies large and small with inexperienced staff. Those that didn’t fare well in a career during a market downturn, it’s either stagnation or hardship after hardship
It doesn’t necessarily have to be office/lab work. I know people that grinded the past decade+ in restaurants until an owner would trust them to manage a restaurant including all the supplies and payroll and then trust them enough to partner on a another restaurant and then that be their ticket to financial security. Some in their 30s, some 40s, some 50s. It’s a grind but at least they didn’t end up drug addicts and alcoholics like so many others
yes, We can’t prevent the bubble burst. We can hope it happens sooner rather than later but the bubble is baked in. So what companies and individuals can to is basically buy up their detritus at bargain prices. And then use them to make better, more solid companies that do not require $3T investment while showing no fucking profit.
Used GPUs
Annoyingly the current Gen that’s used for ai is basically useless for gaming
What about crypto?
AI is where former cryptocurrency companies pivoted when mining cryptocurrency stopped being profitable. There’s nothing left to pivot back to. Even those who have drunk the blockchain Koolaid don’t think there’s money in mining. Just gambling by investing with real money and hoping someone will give you more real money than you bought it with.
Lol. I’m sure some new fangled NFT AI Slop wouldn’t be another bubble.
bubbles are only bad if you don’t leave before they pop
I didn’t realize what is good or bad is reducible to what I alone experience and everyone else can fuck off.
The gpus will still be used for AI, just not as profitable
Hard to do that when there’s no profit NOW.
Is that because they’re so focussed on growth and advancement though?
Right now there’s no incentive for efficiency. The focus is using venture capital to grab market share by implementing new products.
If suddenly everyone realised that the new iterations are more costly without any new functionality, the focus would switch and it might be worthwhile.
Right now, you can buy a $500 GPU, and run an LLM locally that can help you draft documents or code or transcribe audio. If that were scaled up to a subscription service surely it could be reasonably priced, yet profitable.
If all of that were the case… why aren’t they ALREADY profitable? There are only 2 companies in the actual LLM/AI space, OpenAI and Anthropic, and OpenAI is already so dominant that Anthropic is a noncontender. Since that is the case, why aren’t either of them profitable? If they were, they’d be screaming about it constantly; Altman would be on stage every single goddamn day boasting about it; OpenAI would be posting monthly, if not WEEKLY profit reports, just to show how much money they were making as “”“The Future™️”“”; public investors would be POURING IN like nothing else mattered!!!
So where is it? Where’s the profit? Where are the reports and press conferences, the investor statements and the IPO’s? Where’s the goddamn money, Lebowski???
And don’t say they’re in the “growth stage” or whatever. 4 years in and a TRILLION DOLLARS LATER, there’s no profit to be seen, no remarkable products to use, nothing of substance except billions burned building bespoke data centers and polluting the planet. The whole AI “”“industry”“” is a lie.
Because they are still chasing a breakthrough. It’s one thing offering LLMs as a service or selling models, it’s another to develop new and better ones. It’s just a huge research cost. I’m pretty sure if they would stop research on new models and slightly increase their prices, they would be profitable. But they don’t want to fall behind.
I could nitpick many inaccuracies in what you just said, but the main message that they are not profitable is on point.
What was left after the cryptocurrency crash? A whole lot of GPUs that got repurposed for AI. They’ll just get repurposed for whatever extremely computationally intensive thing some computer engineer comes up with. Until that bubble bursts, rinse and repeat. What’s happening is project managers are selling the next big thing to make a lot of capital really quickly to a board of directors.
these are for AI, purpose built bespoke solutions to LLM problems. they’ll age like fine piss.
they can probably be repurposed as general purpose matrix math accelerators
large market there
Where does the capital come from though? Someone has to pay for the shovels and if there isn’t a profit now, how will they pay for the next bubble?